Tag Archives: floods

Cause and Effect in the Supply Chain

With floods in Thailand disrupting auto manufacturers and hard-disk drive producers, supply chain interruption is again making news. After the earthquakes and tsunami in Japan in March, Just in Time (JIT) was impugned in the press. Let’s take a look at what JIT really is, and why it is still a viable approach.

JIT is not just an inventory program, it is a waste reduction methodology. When the Toyota production team coined the term JIT they were looking for ways to eliminate waste, and one way was to minimize inventory. This brings us to cause and effect.

The following diagram was created by Alan Weiss, and shows past/future and cause/effect. I’ve added examples of what this would look like when we apply it to supply chain management. Smart companies stay in the “preventive” quadrant to address root causes or potential supply chain interruptions and prevent them from happening in the first place.

Cause Effect QuadrantLet’s say we’re looking at mitigating the risk of fire. To prevent a fire from occurring, we could have the fire marshal come in for an inspection, remove flammable materials, or put up no-smoking signs. Contingency plans are important, but ideally we want to prevent the fire.

In the case of stock outs, we could address past problems by switching freight methods or changing suppliers, but ideally we want to set the stage for future success, and one way of doing that is by building sound supplier partnerships.

© 2011 – Rick Pay – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under Inventory, Supply Chain

Australian Floods May Have Far Reaching Effects

You may have heard about the major floods in Australia in the news recently. According to Reuters, besides sending snakes and crocodiles into homes, these catastrophic floods have shut down much of Queensland’s infrastructure, forcing 75% of its coalmines to halt operations. Why is this so significant? These mines provide the energy for most of Asia’s steel mills.

Australia FloodingQueensland, which is about the size of Germany and France put together, is the world’s largest exporter of coal used in steel-making. Not only are the open pit mines themselves flooded, but the rail links that take the coal to ports are also underwater.

The ramifications extend beyond the coal itself. Banks that have financed the mines are also exposed to losses from the stoppages. The Australian dollar is slipping, and the Australian stock market is suffering as well.

While many steel plants have stocked up on coal due to the last problem with interruptions in coal shipments a few years ago, these stockpiles represent about three months of production and will quickly be drained.

Continued flooding is forecast, so stay ahead of the game by monitoring the situation to see what impact it might have on your supply chains. For more on this issue, check out the recent article in the New York Times, or this one from the Wall Street Journal.

© 2011 – Rick Pay – All Rights Reserved

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Filed under Planning, Supply Chain